Aaron Schatz, Football Outsider

" Every week at this time during the football season we -- with errant shots from football outsiders dot com and he is on the line with -- now --"

" Hello -- you do. It's very drastic I'd seen a whole a very strange belief compared to the rest of the football analyst world. I have to strange belief that the New York Giants which tendency."

" And they all think that they went like does that even the honors him."

" Now it's really odd I wrote something on yes -- About how the giants are one of the just Super Bowl teams in history. And people are attacking. Or you know becoming -- by pointing out that you know they turned the ball over ten more times their opponents during the regular season. What that they have the third worst point differential but he keep. Super Bowl -- that they weren't fact tendency."

" Well but here's an errant here's the thing here's the thing how many Super Bowl teams with the superbowl teams obviously that warrant the top two seeds. How many wit you home with a number one seed in the home of the number two seed and knocked them off."

" If you. And of those teams they all won those games by a larger margins in the --"

" Well I mean Steelers and after that they went to the white attitude like that they went to the colts in the -- And I'm Super Bowl but to look at this there are any teams that won. Pregame in the playoffs in order to make the super. But those ten teams the team that won its playoff games by the smallest amount to what the 2007 New York Giants. Compared to the 2000 ravens the 2005 Steelers the united -- titans and so forth."

" Since you don't think the you don't think the giants are better than let's say the but what you were at 84 dolphins. There with the superbowl it and there was a year -- about 808282 when did."

" That strike strike yet I can't strike it strike you ever but -- they're down there with a 79 grand in the poultry. Yeah a team that you don't like at all having lifted the ultra campus were great the playoffs against the patriots quite okay. But during the regular season they were really not that it."

" That that -- the conventional wisdom out there is that the patriots are ripe for the picking. That the giants are playing their best football and that the patriots are not playing their best football. On on your website. Your rankings and York statistical analysis is that if we just look at the last four weeks just four weeks the patriots have been better than the --"

" Asp I have tiny amount if you adjust proponent and -- larger amount if you don't adjust for opponents because the giants are given a vote for the fact. That they'd stayed in the game against the best team -- football which is the patriots. There's two questions here one is can the giants. And the second is should we kicked the giants to win the answer the first question is dot. Tonight can we can't. Things happen upsets happen they're not a one and fifteen people here you know I mean. Yeah I can't let people pick the giant political cant win this particular however. Anybody can't take the giants to read in other words who believe that it is more likely that the giants win the but the patriots where it is they have. Simply looking for attention where chides the --"

" Well no no no why do you say that you just feel like the differences are just so overwhelming remained it from the giants perspective. Look we only lost by three points the final game of the season when the patriots had everything to play for why can't we do it differently in the Super Bowl."

" Perhaps that means that the giants had 849% chance of winning this -- If that's the case the patriots still have the better -- Depict the giants have to believe the giants have the better chance of winning the -- And it just seems ridiculous to. I don't know that they don't have a chance they have a good chance. But they don't have a better than 50% chance anybody who says so. Is trying to call ups that ahead of time because should the patriots will -- nobody will remember are ready but he picked this year. Is that giant pulled the upset and you picked up you get to say you pick --"

" Well let me ask your question that you answer on your website today and that is. Should Bjorn numbers and your statistical analysis. Have been able to see this giants' streak coming should you been able to figure out that they were about to go on this three game streak."

" Right and people see to pick its defensive but it's not it's actually an attempt to improve things because if he was going to do this I won't be seen it had to talk. But there's really no evidence that they were going to do this in the fact is that they were falling apart the second half like they do nearly every year until week seventeen. And you know there's no evidence going into weeks haven't seen that their passing game was suddenly improved by leaps and and as far as the subjective reasons heart and guts and all that. If somebody had told you with the canning of the playoffs that they wildcard team was going to go on an emotional week trip to run to the Super Bowl. Everybody would said you were talking about -- because sought. So even that you concede that cup."

" So so hot how do you see this game plan I guess I know where you know what you're -- say that I needed to hear you say it how do you see this game playing out."

" I'm sure that the -- you know the most likely scenario here -- the patriots win. By a small amount of medium now you know 710 point maybe thirteen like they beat the chargers like BP -- more that it's not a runaway that it's not a blow out the giants make -- game of that. That they played more like they have the last few weeks but not -- of the patriots."

" Let's talk about where the giants are wouldn't win this the regular season was over we hadn't yet played a playoff game we're going into the playoffs. Realistically I mean everybody would have had the patriots is the best team going into the playoffs probably the colts' second. My guess is maybe Dallas Green -- 34. We're the giants have fallen in that list of all the teams going into the playoffs what number would they have and -- out of they have been dead last two European."

" Absolutely because I mean by our ratings they were the worst team during the regular season. And I win loss record they were the second worst pitching that was worse in Washington but remember. We all thought Washington was -- that's amazing emotional high because they were playing for the members Sean Taylor. And they also had been much better in recent weeks. But the giants have been jacket only had one good games in the last seven weeks Washington had three fort cricket."

" Aaron I'm not pick in the giants to win the game. But I'm I'm going to defend those who you have blanketed with the title hat or -- attention seeker. If they are going to your website -- great website football outsiders that. And they are they're spending the entire season with errant shots now what what are the rankings here -- errant shots really likes the Dallas Cowboys. And I like the Dallas Cowboys -- and they see the giants knock off a team that you have considered one of the best in the NFL -- long time. Well why why it's so foolish to think that they believe that the giants might be able to knock out the patriot."

" As a regular not that I'd be able to. You can't set might be nice to everybody believes they might be able."

" But -- but now there -- emboldened because they saw what happened and they saw this team. Knock off a great cowboys team and they are great by your rankings by your measure you called."

" although they were very horrible the last four weeks of the right. Department Dallas kind of fell apart in the regular season. Victory here it happened and quite know exactly go on the."

" Let's talk about teams that quote unquote shot it down at the end of the regular season we saw Tampa do it. -- Indianapolis do it. San Diego to a lesser extent did it I mean wouldn't the evidence being. That for those teams who who elect to go that route you're probably not going to succeed."

" Before this year no after this year. I mean I would have to look at it but that sure -- a lot of evidence from this year and that."

" Yeah I think it's an aberration though because the patriots have done before and and then justify going into super lot going on Super Bowl runs."

" pointed out I don't remember quite where I read this but perhaps there is a difference between you know how long roster players in other words if you -- but how the game wild card weekend and that's only one week off. If you let them and then you have the all right now it's two weeks off now that's a big gap. And remember Tampa Bay actually -- players for two weeks have Munich took Garcia out early -- sixty. So perhaps the issue was not resting players but for how many weeks they arrest and the year that the patriots got away with that they etiquette and portrait."

" You know what and I guess we have to get really nitty gritty will be talk but this issue. Some teams are resting players other teams are protecting players. I guess if you protecting your players understand in other words you have a Marvin Harrison who who didn't play well on in the divisional round against San Diego put a guy who was just not physically able to play or give his best. You protect him because you want him to be of -- give his best plan."

" But if you have a guy who -- questionable on your leader board and in general he would play but not at his best regular game yeah I guess that a."

" That's not the same as resting. Peyton Manning."

" Right all your linemen or you know whatever teams that -- but the thing is prior to this year. I mean there are plenty of teams that rested their players and it's fine -- eagles. Didn't try at all in the last two games and made it to the Super Bowl anyway -- prospect report. So there's play you know there was plenty evident before this year. That's -- your starters didn't you know create this. Saying where everybody was sort of lagging in the next game and all that this year is evidence might change that because of the fact is that world lot of teams that's that they're starters the end of the year came out lost the first."

" To give us -- number put the number on the side on the superbowl. I wasn't asking for predictions before but now is Friday we didn't close to a little we're about a week and change away what do you say."

" The most likely scenario -- the patriots went by something between 713 point seven of fourteen."

" And sit ups that you have infuriated giants fans need to go on the high need to gone thirteen to fourteen and rather than the 78."

" That's not really the way the patriots played I mean look like you know once the playoffs company -- on the like let's just -- ball downfield heavily. Well not only help the chargers with that drive it he had scored no."

" And and they could've scored points they elected not to score points I mean. I I know early in the season the patriots were being accused of running up the score quote unquote it has it has not -- that the hallmark of a -- ballot Czech team to do that. I'll tell you right now he particularly wouldn't do it when Tom Coughlin stand on the other sideline I mean if if he had a chance to score that extra touchdown late in ain't gonna happen in this game."

" Got me up more any more importantly if a better way to win the game is to -- the clock with constant first downs throughout the throwing the ball on the field they absolutely won't do. And that's what happened with the chargers and that's why and the fact that I do think the giants are better now than they -- four weeks ago -- make it. I don't think it'll be a while. But the fact is the chances but the giants win -- about the same as the chances that the -- spoke out. But much more likely scenario is that the patriots win by a touchdown."

" We'll talk to next Friday thanks -- our -- thanks for errant shots football outsiders dot com. The want to go to the website he's got all the breakdowns there of why he thinks that the New York Giants are one of the worst. Super Bowl teams in history"