May 16, 2013|
Mike Mutnansky handicaps and previews the 138th running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico as Orb ties to win the Second Jewel of the Triple Crown and head to Belmont with a chance for the sport's first Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978. Jessica Paquette (Suffolk Downs Racing Analyst) and Dick Jerardi (Xpressbet/Daily Racing Form) join the podcast.
Transcript - will not be 100% accurate
The preakness edition of the across the board podcast we will go to. Later on the podcast -- Girardi daily racing form and also the Philadelphia news and after that -- gigabyte. So I'm betting strategy on the street is there have been a great betting race for me and with a heavy favorable -- we can do but -- kicking off our preakness addition the great Jessica balk at the tracking any Kemper. It's up and downs who gave you or on derby day hello Jessica Oreo. -- how well how -- you. Let's go back to derby day for second. And watching the race I always -- caught up in the speed in the derby even though like I shouldn't when they're going that fast tonight. I'll admit I did not see or coming until well down -- how focused were you on his move there and how confident were you he'd get. To the front and win that Kentucky Derby. I would watching and the entire way it is where my focus -- But I don't think anyone could have predicted the beleaguered -- what is giving palace now from rocket to get in the front and I think the race to collapse take flight. Or disabled capitalized at a rate rise by the current Dario by my -- on our homeland life. Yeah he took to that so well and when we talked -- Thursday. The build up was there there was so much good momentum and chokes corner. The horse ran so well and it feels like coming out of that race. -- -- -- -- pretty well their two I don't know Ira broadcast was able to show his work on a Monday and it feels like. Everything going in the right direction no hiccups since derby day heading intro at the pretense for war. I think -- remarkable thing is the -- like he came out of its rate better than before he went into it -- just -- that. I think -- indicate that it's very easy to maintain a horse the form derby the preakness because it's only two weeks. It really takes some effort to try to screw that up much of the gates as. It's great can you remember the last time he -- a -- you can chill. No it's adjusting for take a lot of people -- listen to this your racing fans you know how should approach is that showed its sole. So cautious with his horses he's he doesn't talk about a sources that much she's not one of these guys who is gonna go to predict a winner and any sort of race and that's what the clues people had their every week right -- -- that he was so confident. In his horse and now it's it's like he's doubled down what he says this course gives me chills he's not a got a talks a lot. He really -- and I remember being hit being in his barn where he had gone pipeline and it really nice really. One -- for sure. I've really liked -- -- from Portland -- Atlanta you know little sixteen year old any discussion about -- he looked mean you'd like okay. And with this source he's talking about the work out giving him chills and he went back and actually talk to people. But after the -- on the high gallop and and since then he's -- to gamble -- he's been. Around that stakes barn and look I -- act. There's no way to put it I -- everything is -- sources direction result Oreo has won a bunch of races even since the Kentucky Derby and it just. I don't know I don't wanna put the cart before the horse but I feel like work. We're building up towards something special and -- -- -- gets through here but he is the even money prohibitive prohibitive favorite in this preakness on Saturday. And I don't want to try to beat the odds it's not just ban. And I want the court specialist might be as he seemed like he could be I think there's about you're heart is like trying to make money but I don't think -- can -- Let's talk about the post position draw for some reason. People are making a big deal out of this I have to tell yet and I'm a fan of orbit and if it was or brain of the horse. In a nine horse fields where the two speed horses a draw the two in the three and Goldman sends a title town five. -- draws the one hole that and that's not a bad thing I read these headlines -- how this a bad draw for Orban could this be the bad break. I don't see this is a negative because of the running style because of the speed horses drawn directly on the outside of war what did you think of the draw on how much would affect. His chances of winning this race on Saturday. I think -- really want that -- not ancient I think the only way to prospects animated you revert back to. His earlier behavior being a little bit difficult -- negate it -- you don't have to let her. I'd be a slight issue. Different degrees and of course gets beat if he gets beat it's simply not good -- it's not its customers. This second jewel the Triple Crown you people always talk about the tight turns a Pimlico it's not true the NBC did a great thing on the broadcast complete your slave Randy Moss credit Randy Moss. Is one of the really good guys and in this business when it comes to -- media. And what they did is they took Pimlico. And it took a shot of it and they put it over Churchill Downs like super post it and they showed you pretty clearly. That there's no such thing is that a real tight turn to gamble -- there's a little bit extra banking but. This idea that you gotta be careful when he got it it's tighter it's tougher just get up doesn't exist I think this track sets up fine for running style. It's not Charleston on it -- and it is great it's. I think it's cooler credit I think is the great wanna raise the practice. Parents say balance and dug and they need to -- bad but I don't think -- that. The field itself of nine you have to admit is underwhelming you don't have the second third or fourth place finishers. Opt out of the derby UN Normandy invasion who was looking at this race who ran. I've got a good race in the derby and maybe Javier Castellano moved early that has been some debate the last couple weeks but I was I look at this field. Managed old Bernard DV doesn't feel like that horse that is sort awaiting in terms of could really give Cordoba a difficult. A chance on Saturday would you take -- the other eight stacked up against him. I think it all boils down. How good -- think departing IP he's beaten up his best effort at the lot believe it dirty illegal -- what -- illegitimate deal Erik revolutionary. Golden goal behind that -- -- -- concealed. I don't think you'd think yes I think it's entertaining that he or the work I need to chill. But beyond that I I don't know I think it's a little bit underwhelming that it's at -- old. Will you follow this part of it more than I do I think in terms of the medication and because you you've you've been around horses more than I have. I bet I bet on when you take care of them. The the the idea that it's this is the second time -- six I've heard it said that departing at least six for the first time. And he ran like a different horse in that race one of his best -- figures ever in the Illinois derby anyway why that somehow. Second time -- it is a big deal the -- Believe that that any party you're handicapping methods the preakness. I have actually take that into consideration to be honest with you look at his apartment and he looked like a court let anyway. I -- -- and really -- -- relate to execute you know running on it looks like that they have issued. -- looking like one really. Desperately needed to begin and yet you're at Gary Gary later against up and get that they are -- -- -- Nothing. So I just I don't think -- -- up well competition but an interesting thing about or care about capping a all of their. Is governor Charlie has. Just gone about and focus -- Well it's you know Bob Baffert even a couple days ago was telling people not sure the horses gonna go right now and finally -- you get side it. That's a horse to the F sort of draw a line through in terms of a win candidate will talk about. The horses here underneath. I I was surprised that -- to the track handicap for their Baltimore made my elude. The second choice years five to one I know Rosie to proudly saying give -- Baltimore that's for shore. You go back and look at that and mileage race in the derby and say well he's been a flying their late with a better trip could you get up for fourth could get up for third but. At five to one that is a horse that. I think offers no value target that a little bit because the Rosie angle not. I didn't think it was deserving of second choice in the morning line at least in my opinion. I completely agree I think you can't be way over that. He can win in his career and even win an allowance optional I think it is an -- -- bidding contest and you have -- -- all that well. -- as it in the derby you're passing tired horses and it completely collapsed. And you're able capitalize. So would you say this value underneath and and you and I both think that -- Unless something crazy happens is gonna win on Saturday word is that value life for you in the. I I really like we'll take charge I go back and forth but we'll take charge but I think it's not a big race. I don't know I don't know if you extract albeit a huge -- not stupid -- And the support that look like you really get outfit and work out he needs to get it he he and thirty opposite weeks. About a couple of African I'd like sharks. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- it's a hall of Famer you know like -- the likes -- trying to his ride a princess of Sylmar the day before the oaks was a thing of beauty and now you get that you get. An upgrade from court to Mike Smith I like that. I also think there's any horse that at any bad trip in in the Kentucky Derby. It was will take charge she gets stopped dead at the top of the stretch look like if he kept the momentum. He would have kept going like you said it's a bigger horse on that sort of surface. He's got to take a -- what's your stopped as a big horse is tougher to get back going so they give the trip and the jockey upgrade. I think that one interesting. Is there anyone else you would use up underneath in terms of it up for second or third after or in this race. I don't like -- and cents and I'll see you. I can't us. I like yeah I can't do -- it's it's it Doug O'Neill -- this is a pattern I've -- with Doug O'Neill with a horse pops one -- grace -- you constantly. Chasing chasing chasing he makes umpires -- figures but. -- cents is not for me departing is not a rematch will take charge what like here my -- I don't like to the horse go back to for me it's it's easy. I can go back it's my lucky day on the outside like it's my lucky day. In the derby well because it if you believe it if you believe -- Eddie Lisa and I do we does a really good job of horses under the radar terms trainers nationally. If you believe that he trains so well that that race in the derby can only be. As a result we don't like the surface. And you go back we see the Rana 47. Worked out over the weekend at Monmouth and I get an upgrade from Trujillo at a John Velasquez Annie finished second to orbit at Florida derby. Three that's the horse at all use in my exotic -- triples my exact -- -- it's my lucky day if they run in the top three all of a pretty good day about go back to the outside courts for my second place source here in this weekend. In my issue with its pilots is I keep thinking that this horse Hewitt just. A little bit more development everybody area which is like you look what you so freaky dead and out ever caught up and he just is. Progressing the way they are. But I hit the floor dirty okay effort it is still flat performance and there wasn't an off track -- at any excuses for that. -- is that if it was it was flat he was caught later. Well it's you know it's a situation where. If it was an Eddie Lisa there wasn't somebody that I think. Does a good job with horses and his. Is not gonna say something to say something. I might back off but I yelled look at it that that come to the list down of -- where where the horses are ranked in terms of odds if he's going to be. You know first second third if he's the fifth choice in the morning line and I think -- will take charge gonna take money any floats up to. You at 1213 fourteen to one that's on the win and he's worth way more in the exotics. I gotta come back and plan and hope that it was the slop in Kentucky that are I have to. It. I -- one part of box Boe. He had such a good effort the derby to be one of the. About the great if you don't get balanced life. It's just going to be awful. I expose a horse to me that it is is so he liked it better to finish last in the preakness. That's what I would do he ran such a good race one of the few speeds that chased pals malice. Churchill out and hung around for six and I respect him for that and later in the year. If they rademan some races yell it in LA near -- moderate Arab -- Saratoga and you know lately lately your -- Beatrice but not two weeks after that sort of effort just -- I can't convince myself -- -- a top three. And not even just that effort the effort before Q of course that had every battle throughout out of -- he didn't have any race I don't think he's got -- And I think that he won the cops or whatever that -- lot earlier in the year I Agassi he did not a realistic regression. Yeah I feel like it's or and that it's the it's my lucky day and will take charge somewhere and they are departing. I guess you get clogged up there but the price LB I'm not gonna be adjusted as a racing fan. I just elected. And sort of the the betting interest to separate from the rooting interest no matter what how I bet this thing on Saturday. I'm rooting for or some rooting for the sport -- for Triple Crown because. -- we could use it and at worst case scenario. We could use the three week build up in the Belmont to get up get the fans excited -- get people excited about chance for the first Triple Crown a long time. And it was one of the good guys which I find it just makes me so happy that. You can look all you want not gonna buy anything anything bad to say about showed everybody in the industry has -- the world respects. Parts are all backed or you'll go will take charge for second although it's my lucky day we are what couple weeks away from opening day it's up to death is that correct. -- -- -- -- Can't wait to get out there -- it'll be I started out there I can't wait -- important trading it. Just -- kept from Suffolk downs just a great stuff enjoy the preakness and hopefully I'll be talking about a Triple Crown bid a couple weeks I think you can't. As we continue our preparation for the second jewel of the Triple Crown they'll make it to Pimlico this weekend in Baltimore guys been covering racing. For a lot of years and do it at a great level Philadelphia Daily News in the daily racing form he joined us couple weeks go for the derby he's Dick Girardi. Dick this is looking like one of those weekends where everyone's -- betting one way. That wants -- the other way people want or to win people want this sport to be folks out Triple Crown here couple weeks in New York. I think that's right it's it's the opposite popular when you're talking. A long time great trainer and -- derby ensure brigade yeah. That's subject that -- and the purpose wherever within their first derby in -- reserve. Right there yeah I agree and I think. It's always better -- -- -- -- always better when there's much they were the triple grow as they Belmont Stakes are huge difference and. You've covered a bunch of these where horses won the derby and then prepared for the preakness and a chance to one or Triple Crown I'm curious what. What you look for Dick out of that though the connections. From the during the pre it's a quick turnaround the two weeks is quicken. How is this stretch gone in your mind for the the orbit connections and the horse himself heading into Saturday. Yeah I saw the first slash this morning since. In choppy and he looked a lot of people it has worked on Monday which -- watched on video sensational Belmont for good. More than any effect he just apple trainer and sure it was incredibly optimistic are. In the aid by ships more up and at this time. And that's a great balked because she's not a guy -- Bre X or as a look at -- -- look at may. Tell you is sources -- leaguers -- -- Yet the work out that they made available on Monday I mean again IIIQ I'm not like well I just sort of look to see kind of effort. But it looked like a horse that was just sort of we'll -- haven't fought him for -- say afterwards he gave me goose bumps. Is not his tell right now what he is confident about a horse that means look out when it comes should McGahee. No question I mean there's some traders and went Lucas comes my way and assisting our optimistic 1190 not watch sources that great. We -- Norway which you don't -- show stone because she's trying to tell you something. You're saying -- in in Turkey a lot of people got that message out there like a lot more gonna get it here. What you might -- injustice to the nature of this work were things happen and the best horse doesn't -- but there's no reason in the World Bank workers are gonna -- extremely well. Yeah he was it will be further off the pace than that I expected in the Kentucky Derby when you watch a couple times against. You give -- credit in my opinion because nobody -- known until the race started the palace malice was gonna be out there. Willing like like he did but I thought the ride that he got from Joseph well get any questions about. What type of forging get from him in the spot you go back and look at what he didn't do by a look at the derby you say. We won a best jockeys in the country on a source for the preakness. Yeah I think today in it may have only thirteen there's no writer that you want or all of the all -- and better than giant -- here are some really good writers but today. Just that. And yet -- that. That occasional war or just basic I think -- just trying to get orbit note that read them and that particular racial rhetoric that was quite likes Ike is that there aren't so fast and -- almost single person out. I certainly -- He channels the art ever awarded. Thought about the race in the way active equity only before and Portugal -- -- subs. That this is the complexion of the race dramatically. When that happened but yet -- and all that about 300 yards in the race could have been much much better at one. See they allow that across the pond ignoring -- spending it. I know that if we gotta get we gotta get you are going to be an aero. Yeah I'll blame all my losses on that that I can't Victor and the breaks are. It terms of the field that he's gonna face on Saturday I don't know I would say Dick come underwhelmed note 234 finisher. Out of the derby how do you view this -- crop for Saturday's race. -- -- -- -- -- -- Well we don't know what. Whether golden circle back to his performance Saturday obviously -- that enemy that was just that was solely it's I want these -- obviously better that he showed. Apparently competitive order numbers prior to the last race. But they didn't -- -- orbit so yeah I think it is kind of underwhelming. She showed -- before the derby you're not here and that's unfortunate as you'd like you re matches and maybe this revolutionary get -- this it looked serious but. And the head of the new players -- departing to -- consistent horse Louisiana or return it to be great perhaps. Horses that finished 235 in the derby all came out of that race side and it is a factor we're gonna go make up or relax orbit too excited about -- Like just a look at the field and a little I guess might my question would be what did he beat -- -- evident. Great that's a good statement and he was or here's why don't vote are you going -- well. I may get better indicator of what the party is is the fact that he was in Louisiana derby ran well. And that we -- out all the resources racquets -- -- coast at least east. He's in the -- -- -- he's totally overmatched. It's at least of course any any any got trapped by a terrific guy Al stall. But you have to pick up like on the numbers potential to. Well Al get into some of the other well horses but imagine departing gees I guess what the big key phrase is new shooter more talked about the new shooters. In the preakness because there's so few of them. Eight is is it because. The race is not as prestigious as he used to be Dick is because they think or does just that good why do you. Why do you think we didn't have as many of these newcomers lining up to face in this time around. Yeah I think the combination. Or was a really strong order of the derby. A lot of horses that last proxies and they didn't make it true. And I think everybody else because that Serbia has become so -- there. That there are all locked in and where and when they find out the reality is that what you're no good -- forty X -- wherever they just jump out. But some more that -- probably do it out all the and just say -- -- went turbulent what do we can't just sit that would -- that on an extra two weeks altered and try to run interpret -- as it is and it's not like it's an inconsequential race then there's a lot of money on the line obviously a lot of precedence. I just I think there are a lot of trainers Decugis what you just said they would love to do and the owner goes nope we know the derby we can run in the derby will wanna be there. It Churchill Downs the first Saturday in May I worry about a year but -- -- -- is one of the horse and he backed him on derby day. It's it's my lucky days the or some wanna go back to -- hoped that -- what -- polices so what Doug O'Neill said that some horse just did not take. To that track out see the effort was a no show he's way on the outside what do you make his chance -- an -- horse it's my lucky day on Saturday. Yeah. Kind of baffled by Emma I understand like all the intense stretch of orally just got -- that -- I get that. It's my lucky day really you never saw it you'd do it. And and rot while sloppy track toward -- so sloppy church that are different. But little mysterious about this subject or worse let's support our got to see it. Are about -- and Eddie -- accept it may be right but I I'm I'm now actually. I. At what what can we be sure with him at the mama I'm not really much about it. What -- what was your reaction when the post position draw came down Wednesday or drew the one -- Saturday. Not a huge deal but I think all things being equal shorter route and outside just -- Jack Milosevic about. Is a target now the Serb targets in the server search everywhere for salt there. But every right if we look at that they Doherty is in the so they know that number. As a potential we can get locked in its -- Mike gases. Shell Oil out of the gate just takes him back and get the outside and comes around field. So eliminates the post position factor that's. A bigger factor that's why yes as that all happened. I can't jump ship it said yesterday route sixty times and as you know post position not merely -- -- Preakness and that is. And this case look I saw the two speeds struck 23 you get the chance to sit beside -- to that -- title tags. A little bit coy and there are so I think you'll probably set a nice trip like you said before. Joseph wells in such a good job you imagine or BC even money. Where is there any value on a -- that -- tourists were a betting standpoint based on the morning line. Dick where he can try to play underneath and try to make a few bucks -- does went on Saturday. Yeah I think probably -- way to approach the race is just there are different factors and orbit and I think the alliance there and that's where it. The outlaw war to exact as. And just pop off that that's really the only way to play -- our republic and we will. We can get talking get what into the 351 -- that. Not likely to happen and it just forces are so I'd say just block you know water sue if you think -- that's gonna clear the field. And gold sets to clear field or comic actually want to attack just like that if you think and a possible effect if you look at it. That the pace to be really hot or governor Charlie and that pace factor -- -- -- speed horses Al maybe economic clothes or what department to be second. However after every mystery. -- -- -- -- Right at -- we all we are. Bloggers tell smells nobody that -- looked like a moderate rational page. Well here it looks like there's the potential for really are contested race so -- such a bright it was only 47 and so it went. Artsy you said the key exact does for you under orbit sounds like key need that. Which it was gold and 61 of your to a departing be the other I got to like right. Exactly what I'm gonna go play it two ways and effective I'd like -- Actuate the way I play much -- -- our secure that there was some moderate. Using the speed horse and the closer with -- four on top are mostly just musical sense about. Here -- which are used to -- or second and these were closer in that way there is -- the goal. In spite you have other option and back the party and it's there and -- that it's clear that they're acting he got accused of being up. Yeah and overall the a couple of days Dick I felt like going to the two cards -- I wanna get him local lot of credit there are full fields from Friday morning. It till late Saturday the fields are full there -- superstars right don't look to -- ago he's running he's right but. There are full field -- some really good betting opportunities both Friday and Saturday DiMarco. -- work out just whatever the -- for Saturday an -- Friday in a few minutes and the other nurse shortages of gambling opportunities and after all isn't that why we're here. That's that's why I'll be there that's -- I'll be looked at onyx and I'm not making the trip yet just got my first child so we're sticking around for this one but I will be -- -- -- expressed -- and Dick is courtesy. Other express spent the legal license Nolte way let the races when he can't make -- to the track express -- dot com. Is the website great deal right now free wagering guide and IBM (WSJ) new accounts set up. 125 dollar for the bonuses it is the perfect time to get locked and loaded great video stream their express that dot com and they help us. I get connect with Dick Girardi these races did we appreciate the title we're talking a couple weeks about a Triple Crown bid into the weekend at Pimlico. -- -- like that sort straight talk -- Are there you go one -- Jessica -- -- of Suffolk downs Dick Girardi daily racing form. And a Philadelphia Daily News odd -- all latest and we had some good success. On derby hopes you'll get a chance to jump aboard their gold -- -- the include our exact a box came back about 900 bucks the -- Which we gave up their few box those five horses. Even for fifty cents could come all the really big number and for two bucks but he came back about a 7000 dollars it's it. It's a tougher race to make money in the preakness just days. And I don't play trifecta is a lot the preakness -- the race why play tries I just it's the one area where it had some success not in every year. But when I do play trifecta is it's the it's a major way I'll play this weekend. One of the two major ways one first of all there's a guaranteed. What million dollar pick for some crazy guarantee. On Saturday summit to try to be alive to war and it's my lucky day. In the pick for at that comes home that's gonna pick is the guarantee terms the race itself. I'm gonna play a couple different trifecta is I'm gonna play a or. All it's my lucky day and then orbit it's my lucky day all. And a player goes for three dollars each -- played three dollar try. Orbit it's my lucky they have got to finish in the top two and in this one and having your bet it -- got to finish first and for three dollars I habit or. Also the seven other horse in the race and it's my lucky day. Or it's my lucky day all it's gonna cost you 42 bucks for three dollar try on each and then just for sanity sake because he was my derby pick. Charred dollar exacting each I'm gonna play it's my lucky date when the race. All orbit and then it's my lucky day or all -- like fourteen box sell -- that's what sixty. 66 dollar playing my math right there so -- effect discovered look it's my lucky day doesn't run top three and orb wins I would lose. My hope is that the price he is on the morning licensed its choice right now. He slides back a little bit twelfth fifteen to one he is ridiculous value and I don't like my lieu of five to one departing at six -- one could easily get into the number. But if it's -- winning and it's my lucky day at 101214. To one get sand. This is gonna pay these trifecta -- the Preakness Stakes are huge even with the favorite winning. So that's the way I'll play a couple of trifecta for three dollars or all it's my lucky day or it's my lucky day all of the debris blocked. It's my lucky day all or it's my lucky day orbital -- they're going to be -- the only way he gets beat. In this race is some sort of really bad troubled trip. And that's really it in the speed is there in this race you heard Dick congestion talk about the pace. Pace makes the race I don't care about the turns at Pimlico. At the desk jockey in the country right now the speed is there he's gonna -- a perfect trip. Troubled trip could cost him down albeit the horses -- he's ready to go. -- China balanced the betting with the wagering are granted at the wagering with the the routing -- root for -- what if you're racing fan again Triple Crown. You hope to make some money on this day. Will seek come Saturday at about 630 your silicon Loko and gore wins this race it's -- lucky day somewhere in that top two or three and we're being pretty good shape -- I just -- get Dick charted for joining us until next time. Across the board say.
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