Keith Law with Mutt and Bradford

Keith law of espn.com. Knows a lot about this because he worked for baseball prospectus any work for the Toronto Blue Jays. Under JP -- charting keep nice and the join us here on the program keep Mike and rob how are you. They teeth so bottom line -- is J. D. Drew worth fourteen million dollars a year.

I think he'd worked about fourteen million dollars a year except when not a bargain for the Red Sox but I also don't think he's overpaid. Promote value perspective and I -- you know were -- from a market perspective either could the one thing we can pretty clearly is that premium players premium producers. You get paid. Are you gonna get on the market in baseball it's the middle tier guys -- got to look at right now on the the sort out baseball economy. But premium guys like true who do produced and produced in areas that most GM -- really paying attention to beat you get paid.

So he sued the area's most GMs are paying attention to him. In Europe are you're of the mind that RBI is like the notes that is is not as important status as a lot of people who follow the game for a long time used to thank. So what are the stats that they are prioritizing when looking -- like dialing J. D. Drew.

RBIs. Are like an intelligent. Right if you think RBIs are important that the measures something about it -- performance that you fail. And I think that -- true probably for two -- to three quarters of the GM right now they do not look at RBI. At all we never used it what are we doing that analysis for the blue jay yeah ever discussed the players RBI. -- they expect the focus on him you can just talk perhaps Rebecca baseball card on base percentage slugging percentage of the two most important. Because they're rate base it's not just -- played more he racked up more stats you wanna know what he what are you doing per game correct. I got on base percentage the single most important of all but speak expects because -- and -- based. In other we're talking -- not make it -- most important thing in the game. -- hitters to just not make out. The iron on base percentage electric only -- making out there a lot more advanced statistics out there from four to went about replacement to batting runs. When your weight. And Derek disagreement over which of those can -- most accurate I it will be fair to say that the smartest means. That are paying attention to statistical analysis are doing something like that they're they're looking to want the public wants but -- got immediate out is created his own way to better hitter performance level is within the industry were awake half. Batting average RBI.

I had an obviously those things make up the of the Triple Crown and folks have looked at those for a long time I guess I would fall into -- initially keep that the -- section because I still look at look at RBI and and you find people five bucks of the even mention. RBI talkin' baseball get a call represented a couple hours ago why then explain to me why RBI. Is not important when I've been told growing up as a baseball fan that RBI was the measure of how productive a guy is the bombers on and how many times he knocks those guys.

Well that's it you know the problem is that this has been in need of a baseball right particularly pre Internet you had a limited number of people. Talking about baseball in awkward baseball now accept. And they preached the gospel of batting average and RBI and and for pitchers we didn't they expect that now and I didn't -- urged ignored. Currently the problem and RBI back. -- extremely context dependent how often do you actually come up. We got a big head issue it's affected by the team he played or the performance of your teammates. And where you get in the lineup. There's also a prepaid lot compliment -- it there's no evidence whatsoever. That knocking guys eating specific skill that we have hitters who consistently perform significantly better we. One or in scoring position for example not gonna meet you bet a lot in particular year but the idea of a player who can do this consistently over the course of his career it just does not pay him. And out so when you're looking at RBIs Europe looking -- a lot of variables that have nothing to do would help the Decatur actually he is outlawed. A lot are are either context dependent. Or just about our -- from one year to the next good luck. Or bad luck they can excuse the RB --

So you've said keys today there's debates in terms of the other stats to see your metrics stats investment a lot of fans aren't necessarily looking at. Which ones are the most important in your view when you approach a player is there one or two that you really wanna focus on.

Now I'm not doing it for the Blue Jays anymore. I'm not doing anything on my own obviously a lot of what you create in -- scouting rather than the typical alpha so when I'm doing something like. Ranking the top fifty created which helped you once we get to the World Series. Ever start looking at that I'm looking at all these different numbers -- from baseball prospectus book angry after looking at. They're wins above replacement a look at some of the numbers on hardball times Q I try to get a block -- I don't think there is a single stat as. The -- answer I'd rather look at three or four different one -- way to attack the problem. Intrigue are they all pointing in the same direction well that's pretty strong indications are they giving meet different. Opinions on the actual value this player produced last season well then. That's a sign -- cute that I and you could link you differently or maybe people will put more on my scouting report on the guys that.

Arts -- let me ask you I'm just I pulled up the J. D. Drew 2009. Season and you've already said that from year -- year you know runners in scoring position RBIs it it it's lot more than and they just. Getting hits runners in scoring position but I'm looking just -- it J. D. Drew runners in scoring position. You batted to thirteen this year and drove in 46 runs in a 143 plate appearances look at the raw number. I to thirteen batting average and with player runners in scoring position. That doesn't seem like a good number for a guy get paid fourteen million dollars a year.

Eight to thirteen batting average in the absence of any other information is not a good number a couple of 143 at bats which is way too small the sample. To draw and -- conclusion. About this player's actual ability and J. D. Drew is paid fourteen million dollars a year to get on -- Provide some power and play good defense in the outfield now that number which runners in scoring position. They're not really tell me anything about those 4 things I -- I don't know what he'll exactly at about true but I'm guessing it afterward that things JD dressed eight to get. White it's fourteen million dollars and win healthy. He got all four perspective there's criticism of journal treated could not get on the field often enough for a guy he's paid fourteen million dollars.

And that's Micronesia -- of follow up question is are you talk about the value of guys you guys values drop when -- they missed significant portions of the season when you factor in fourteen million dollars for guy who. Hasn't played a 146. Games in the last three seasons with the Boston Red Sox.

because I think if you're general manager. You're trying to plea could value player how much do we want to pay for this created -- under contract they were -- arbitration how much do we really wanna give this guy like. You've got to look at. Realistic projection of how often he's gonna play -- key injury prone. If you guys who just does not like to playing in the sense that we Corey Koskie the Blue Jays but one year. If the guy at at. Escort pinky was in the trainers were beat these players would -- spirited -- the player who. Plate -- a player who when it will hurt would prefer to ask out want to beat -- you have to factor those in. And adjusts poor value on the player accordingly because even the guys really productive. -- it between 12745. Games he worked last year caught.

Knowing other Red Sox thank him I think the utes went very very well. -- their value in Jason Bay.

I think -- Extremely happy to be offensive production and probably really concerned about it sought and defensively every defensive number -- on him. Is bad and the monster killed guys I understand that it. Wanted to -- things that people who. Work on defensive metric -- wanna -- it just valuing outfielders in lacked any contender in Fenway. -- because it's such an unusual ball park but another Red Sox are extremely cautious and defensive value. And -- that -- pampering the excitement they love the fact that they worked the count get on base like crazy as big power. And actually -- an American League pitching a big difference for me between banks politics you what I need to -- any formula I at all that he can hit it. Gets decent big picture it's -- over the -- So I'm sure that they -- Picard giving him a little extra value for that because -- finding that you -- American League American League -- pitching is not easy. But you've just got to hold back a little bit because this guy will give some runs back on the defensive side.

So I guess that leads to who'd you think he's gonna make more than this offseason bear holiday. And.

Which should be -- and you can meet. I'd be shocked if an American League team emerged as Iditarod politics are lucky to get involved the make inquiries -- make offers. But it American wreaking havoc out beating all the actually -- politics that's huge mistake for me because it.

Ask -- the American League did not have to accept.

And the scouting report on him he's very consistent has been seen the last couple you're you can beat this guy with big velocity Europe put this kind American League east and an --

Every day.

You know to me that is an enormous risk to take given what it's gonna cost you -- quiet.

is the Red Sox look at the off season you know what is their biggest need in your opinion as they're working at 2010 is there one area you would point out. That they need to approaching and reset heading into next year.

I think the offense has got to be the main focus and yeah whether or not -- and they retain their -- don't need to work on. I try to -- to the offense he saw what happened to them in a very short period in the post he's obviously back to be concerned. You know David Ortiz was basically going to be an anchor -- lineup it's pretty clear at this point he's not gonna be that I don't sport. I think the shortstop. Problem is kind of an open question -- and get -- It would certainly bring out conduct back on topic one pick that option and pay it much it's got -- just for basically I could valuable at all glut. At this point. And probably pitching depth. They -- that the -- obviously didn't work out great opinions small but it's pretty clear that the ought to be -- follow going forward. But -- to go Ben Sheets go get -- valued for a reason like. As an injury that kept an. And out of action for a wild figured medical cart clearance to -- competent aren't we might get twenty starts -- and willing to roll the dice because we know you get those twenty starts but probably be pretty good.

Q last question from me is I know -- just came from the Arizona Fall League so awesome the Red Sox prospects a lot of people have -- curiosity regarding the shortstop and -- is. From Cuba and also Casey Kelly was out there what were your impressions of them.

I like what I saw the limited -- by it very clear he could play the position and probably could play at an above average level in the big leagues -- twenty can't. That that is probably a little ways away I like this swing he's very short the -- not a big I at all so the right approach for him. It can be short the ball just -- from making contact on drive stalled you'll try to -- don't try to hit for power when I saw him looks like that could approach in the swing is that we killer for that. -- I -- the thinking the pitcher long term I don't think there should be any question. As a shortstop. He's actually pretty adept defensively to his bat is probably four by yours away. I think it would if you could ever pitched well in the short thought he could be comment above average shortstop in the big -- offensively -- principally. But he -- much longer -- the picture he might be eighteen months away from contributing in the big leagues and you could see that you know it felt to this Wendell long. Better pitching hi to -- he had faced a lot of interest to not have a lot of experience in the pro hitter and it really --

Outlast surgery Keith that's Steven Strauss -- I know we got racked in his second start in the AFL did you see that first one because that the reports were. Were glowing about that first start and how good this kid might be.

I didn't see the first start making him three times as an amateur. Seemed guy just about every time with -- gradual improvement he struck out and what I heard from the first start -- exactly what it stopped him. In March he was 904099. For me 200 pitches in ninety not a couple of times early but settled in 9490. Seven with an out pitch breaking ball -- on a strike. He called it purple heart like a -- almost to the mid eighties. And -- have repeated the delivery extremely well being I was worried about extremely hard our horse is. To your kick it typically takes so much effort to throw that velocity he's just freak in that it does not pay Camelot effort until he can repeat the delivery and command back.

But it's great stuff keep thought check -- Q it's working espn.com. And it's a great conversation happen rainy Saturday here in Boston Keith thank you for your time we appreciate it. -- keep law joining us on the AT&T hotline eight seats seat your world delivered.