10-3-08 Aaron Schatz, Football Outsiders

Back here at Gillette Stadium -- Patriots Friday. Every Friday at this time Leah can act up with. The driving force behind that very fine football site football outsiders dot com. Or shots is on the line parent I don't. Doing well this week. Well I haven't email question for you'll -- that's pretty good. We have an E mailer who says quick question to try and ask errant shots this. What NFL line surprises him the most this week.

Well above yeah the game and yeah you. Are actually you know we did it takes to get spread now part of a premium. And this week I have. No green chipped to -- taxable ones they're the best camp when opportunity because our sport says the don't be very different from. Or in and the market this week the winds are pretty spot on there really aren't that many lines that I think that acrid. The only one might be dallas' and it just because have a team is just such a no doubt that the that's to surgical possible while. You never know you never know -- we it's gonna happen and teams up in the way in whatever.

It's a colossal line but is it colossal of Ryan Fitzpatrick the pride of Harvard. As the quarterback for the --

Yeah active in politics is what we -- the ball and that when he played when becomes a thirteen. That's why you rarely see. --

I I was reading one of your contributors. From a football outsiders and he said. This is the week that you might want to put Randy Moss on the bench if you're fantasy football player because. 49ers do very good job of matching up and number one receivers and he mentioned Nate Clements. Do you agree that.

Well they have this year I mean I don't know if that's the kind of thing after four weeks we can say that's not a definite trend. And that being said you know I think -- from what we've seen over the last week's loss is not -- must play anymore because. They're going to double and they're going to try to take away and the team is just not trusting -- throat out you know simply Brady has now whether or they feel more comfortable locked up by that we. Go back to -- all -- more I don't know. Body's not particular statistic shots that. The 49ers might double team blocks all game long with Nate Clements and -- the -- they can happen bad. Which you know opens things up for other Patriots which is -- the Patriots but it's not good if you don't -- and.

tell me that perhaps one of the best teams in the NFL right now is in Tennessee. What are your numbers --

They are actually right now our favorite to win the super. Our current playoff ought to like a 15% chance or something. You know. No teams to have a chance -- this point but. Out there playing very well. Their offense. Is better with Eric but he makes fewer mistakes a better with Chris -- running back. I'd rather -- LenDale White you know being able -- committee. -- And the deep and has not moved back the pack after that it was last year at once again very very there's second art -- of Baltimore.

Is is that gap between Tennessee. And Buffalo also undefeated is that a significant gap in your ratings --

Now it's it's it's a reasonable one we have Tennessee we actually still have Baltimore as the top team in the NFL. Even after losing to Pittsburgh. Why because they just played really well some of that might be that their first two wins over. -- opponents and our opponent just interrupt fortunately it yet but. Acted its its very well against Pittsburgh in. You know may have actually outplayed Pittsburgh and lost based on sort of you know bounce the ball type things that don't necessarily show how could -- team. In the future look -- a municipal Flacco fumble that was returned. For a touchdown by -- for the difference in the game. In general. That fumble could've -- been recovered by Baltimore and -- So. All was playing very very well this year that we -- Tennessee in the Buffalo the Buffalo just a such spot that we we were the only one that didn't stop -- well because this year. But we needed -- that this is just pretty shocking you know however that it's a.

And really to back up your point that Pittsburgh Baltimore game which was a great game to watch it really enjoyed it. Baltimore. Gotta tackle for a got to stop for a loss maybe like 45 yard loss just before that field goal. To tie it up and and then there was at that there was another play by Pittsburgh they were able to sign up and went into overtime. That if that goes the other way Baltimore went again so that you you're right there's a lot of little things that game could've gone either.

A look at overtime went essentially -- he doesn't you know. In April the twenty at a the other by only by the slightest margin so Baltimore has you know played pretty well so.

Setting aside whether or not he should be playing Randy Moss this weekend what are your numbers tell you. About the Patriots game in San Francisco.

Believe it or not our little against the spread thing comes out -- except sisco but I think the reason why is that our ratings -- overreacting. And because that loss was so drastic. That it overwhelms. The quality of the first two would it. And I think that thought lost was a bit of a -- I mean it was a put off a lot since they were on prepare for those things just got to -- that doesn't mean that they're going to go back to what it worked out seven. I don't think you're going to be seeing them getting slaughtered by all the worst team in the week for the rest year. And you could start when we're starting with burst into the league conservative sisco. And I accepted Cisco is looked artificially good early because we're scheduled. To the Patriots -- potentially bad early because of what -- Blowout you know it wouldn't look so -- at the clothes off for. So like do you think that the Patriots in this game I think they should be Saber numbers --

You know it's funny to hear you talk about the ratings but the ratings like they are are living breathing things there are times that you disagree with your own numbers aren't there that's -- sounds like to me.

Well absolutely sir I mean listed. What I always say is the people in general judge sports based on accompanies the scouting and stats stats and your own allies necklace for every. Every time somebody pulled something about a hundred yard Russia's top thirteen win at essentially that step. So what we do with the ball outsiders as we tried to improve the staff side. But we are still using -- we are still using our eyes we are still using this thing called common sense. We know our numbers are not perfect and to our numbers are not perfect it's possible to bring with them and so there's something we're just not picking up yet like. For example the fact that the Miami it was a -- because I don't have a little thing the check out the says well by the way to put it was really a wildcat. Which nobody would ever run in the NFL before in the Patriots were totally ready for.

Just your eyes -- yeah. Maybe they should have been able to stop since 6 --

I really well in the future I'm in my guess is that that you know you know the fact is that the Patriots are based on game plan. And they cannot -- the most out in the lead -- we have these there's reason why they like older slower sometimes but all the more intelligent. Players particularly at linebacker because of their ability to prepare their ability to Byrd. Became planned front Belichick and peas and then used their instinct to -- on the field we presently at them they're not ready for you see something like with sub two weeks ago. Not going to happen again that would keep about the wildcats are betcha anything. They've got a decent.

we always appreciate time thanks. Rob we can talk to errant shots from football outsiders dot com.