09-05-08 Aaron Schatz, Football Outsiders

It is our first Patriots Friday of the season. And our first visited the season of their friend errant shot from football outsiders dot com hey Aaron I don't. I am doing well end up very happy to watch actual football that can't beat the count that -- actual football. Not if you're one of Jim -- relative split everyone else. There and got a new book out how -- your how's your book doing.

We're doing well we're doing well it's a prop -- all perspectives to validate its very easy -- we will change the year. But we're doing pretty well there user you know really solid and we're pretty happy with the this year.

What changes from year to year mean what house always look different than -- seven book.

Well I mean Percival obviously you know we -- the whole -- with -- every chapters. Different talking about the previous season in the upcoming season. And then playing around statistics. This one has more I think of the game charting stopped the intricate little tidbits we pick up from charging like. How often teams are certain formations which teams that are on play action and chalked and and I'm pretty proud of the -- it was -- group effort this year I actually to must've writing in years past twelve to divorce that guy like it's.

Well I I I know Michael knows this this season and author himself but I always love a little book -- obscure little blurbs. And and what you actually have is no less an authority than Ron Jaworski saying. Pro football prospectus tells you not just who will win. But why. Men have put all the pressure on you doesn't.

cut -- view well it it was pressure I -- to say who'll win doesn't it.

We'll get to that eventually. And this conversation.

We still like to do why I didn't Ryan is important otherwise. You know if we just published a book that was just -- stats that because of the -- I'd like to explain them at what they mean they've been the upcoming season and it. It's not enough to some people get upset sometimes when they look at our -- our ratings have which year they say. I don't understand. You know Buffalo -- higher than Miami bigger picking Miami to win this game -- in the answer is that all not a game. Where everybody gets a one to 32 number it -- odd man. Admit that the gave -- matchups -- you have to look closely at them matchups. Just figure out sort of -- game is going it started up to just say this team overall is -- this team over rock. So we'd like to take our stats in use them. To look closer at the match. Well I don't know that there I think it's kind of looking for who burst out like an overall power rating that rates how could every player is how the team is. Well actually looking for more very specific stats that don't measure how good a player is. Overall but rather -- specific. And they do because of football team is a collection of specific players that do specific things. It's not like of baseball right up where you know that you could just plug and into the Dodgers lineup until hit. You know you don't have to by the shortstop and a third baseman who note note essential blocking scheme the -- after guards setters.

We talk about football being a game of matchups and want to talk to you about some of those matchups. First let's start with the Patriots game Patriots versus Chiefs. Vegas says anywhere from fourteen to sixteen. Sixteen point went for the Patriots how do you see this game playing out.

I see the Patriots wouldn't panic I -- I will say you know if I were a Canadian resident or resident of Nevada. And could gamble I would never put my money on sixteen went long and sweet season. But the Patriots are so far better for the Chiefs to sort that. Chiefs are incomplete and hold rebuilt well.

Now if you if there was another game on that on the docket of games this weekend that jumped out in the that maybe you think that they've made a mistake or or that you just clearly see a winner over another team which would have been.

To me it's so obvious he actually started out as a -- between Seattle impossible. Now -- is actually move to Buffalo in -- by one hole oversee yeah. Which doesn't make any sense Seattle is a team that's what it's divisions four I believe 37 street he. And they you know -- six or better every single -- no it was evident night last year and frankly it -- actually that good they want to couple close games. Use what we call the Thackeray wins which. Baker solely points scored allowed to actually more like five and eleven team. People believe that you know rich stadium as this magic power over other teams that they lose in Buffalo but. Buffalo was actually played at home six out of the last seven week woods and there are two and four in those games. So it's not like there's some magic in Buffalo that makes good teams lose to the built the first week. I have no idea how anybody could think that Seattle was with -- even touched off slowed quality.

Knight -- I love going over fantasy stuff with a lot of fantasy owners out there are hanging on every word so do not. Lose on this opportunity to not do not show carriers aren't. No pressure tell me. A fantasy -- a fantasy player that no one is talking about but they should be talking about.

For the season Horford this we. Well I like a lot of the sort of underneath kind of running backs and the fact is that fantasy football essential large industry that there really are no players that nobody's talking. But god you'll get later draft who I think will really into doing well for our -- shots in the rookie Tennessee. Steve Slaton the -- used to it and Rashard Mendenhall. Pittsburgh. Johnson's gonna be split out sometimes as a receiver and that's going to get him in the lineup -- and -- I would let go quite as he is. Super fast he just like flash past. And he will make some big plays. Slaton Houston is just a bet that running -- but yet Alex gets the old guy that does result blocking. -- their new office of white folks that they should be much better running the ball. You know mark green is old kind of broken down interest to most -- specialist. Slaton may have been a later round pick but he's perfect for that style of play -- I think he's going to easily be used starter for most. Despite sharp -- at all it may not seem like this the first couple weeks but. He's just better than Willie Parker and he's better suited for an office supply and that's not as good as it has been in years past -- to back to make his yardage. And I think the by the end the year he'll be the starter in the much better pack the parker.

Not any any fantasy owner worth his or her salt knows that he got the number one and number one pick in the draft -- take LaDainian Tomlinson. Is there somebody else who was challenging. Tomlinson throne as the number one guy to look for.

I don't think so. Just because of consistency that yes you -- a year and the number of touchdowns. But I think you'd expect from him compared to that the guys were going to be two with three -- going to be. Brian Westbrook and Adrian Peterson and pretty much solely.

Lineup from the Patriots perspective this weekend we don't know much about Brady because we haven't seen him in the pre season. We think we know about loss that we think Welker is healthy and and we know they've got a whole bunch of running back what do you see from them offensively this weekend.

All I'm sure that you know they'll come out and do their thing I guess there's a little bit of a question here whether they're going to do quite so much running -- It did last year or whether they'll run the ball more this season. That they don't go quite as deep that as -- that they can really throw out a lot of those four wide and watch split out accepts. You know by it they're going to do they're saying I mean. In the past the Patriots always would but it would do was figure out the weakness of the opponent and it was straight against the fact is last year they stopped. Roster they went out they did they're saying no matter what opponent's weakness straight. And it came back to bite them in the Super Bowl. Which Kansas City you have achieved as district. So it's -- just go out and whatever you feel like I mean to be perfectly honest this game is going to be less about Brady or about Brodie. How many interceptions through this.

Now last year -- had a really smart system where you could figure out how good a team was in and how good they were compared to some teams in the past. Last year your your ratings for the Patriots were incredibly high all year long. Do you see them being the same type of record setting team and I'm not talking about points this just in terms of overall goodness look at overall quality. Are they that same type of team this year or do you have them going down enough.

Well two things first of all would be impossible. For thirteen -- two straight year. I mean no team in the NFL history had ever been -- for two straight years. Into the -- that they were challenging when it came to like the title of greatest team all time we're not that good for two straight years remember what the Bears were like 86. The Dolphins and 73 won the Super Bowl but honestly the cemetery eighteen was as good as people think. The Redskins -- 92 I mean you know the greatest teams of all time generally -- that's attack. For more than one year it's it was special last year when you look at the doubt. Particularly in the secondary but also at right Packers should simply get hurt. He just doesn't look like they're going to be as good team. But they're going to win at -- games because -- schedule is so easy. So easy pick to sleep walked through a big putback -- quarterback with twelve.

Yeah. -- yeah it's on defects.

None are about now but -- let's be real if they had Matt Cassel if there's if there's of people. We're concerned about Tom Brady split the they had go to a season with Matt Cassel how many did you think it would.

All right I was kidding not well. Parents who did with the team sport and by the way if the other team that they played here are just not very good.

We appreciate the time we'll tucked in next Friday. Except where -- shots from all football outsiders dot com. He has blocked pro football prospectus 2008 is available Barnes & Noble and -- has not the bookstores as well.