Aaron Schatz, Football Outsiders

Every Friday at this time for a few more weeks anyway we talked -- our football insider from football outsiders dot com married shots on the line parent I don't. And hey don't want to do weekly hot chocolate it would aquarium to break it down for if you want this is the ethic and I don't -- about pocket. -- That's our technical what you know tell us what you know right right now. Like on o'clock so. I go to talked to some other people -- these. I can't really -- the club and well at the start we -- go get there it's Mike went from there at that in the Michael. You don't give one quick Mike flanked. And while dive back into the well back the world. Based on your analytical breakdown of these teams. And and looking at all the numbers the way you guys like to do with football outsiders dot com what's the biggest mismatch of the four games this weekend. Based on an outburst based on your radio giants cowboys and and and the cowboys should win big based on your numbers except of course that there is. All kinds of injury issues revolving around both teams primarily cowboys that sort of confused that --

Because without TO if -- most on the still affecting you really have to wonder the last four games of the season. The cowboys -- collapsed on both sides of the -- by the way on deep sense also. And with no T go if he can't play you know data already in the second game of the season against the giants they had to leave Witten the tight end in block who bought more because the -- pass -- so good. And you know if he doesn't have -- Ortiz go out there who's from the -- to.

What but you -- pretty high on the cowboys' go to earlier this season and you had one of the best teams have a public one of the top ten teams of all time correct.

Maybe dropped out of that a lot for week.

So they are where. -- give us give us compares -- mean they are more like what team now.

He deserves board. I think team for the year they ended up fourth beat at the drop in the -- drop and the jaguars to.

So so you're you're pretty high and the jaguars you'll understand all the love the jaguars are getting from. From people around the country.

Yes and no means a lot for the jaguars is proper until you get to -- they are built to -- to beat the patriots ideal wage. As good as they've played this year they're not. Really built to beat the patriots the cowboys actually ended the year third slightly ahead of the Jack but the last fourteen points real badly to the point where. It is little wonder which countless came out this. Jaguars are really cut but the fact -- the patriots are so much better than. As good as the jaguars -- I've been right the jaguars and appreciate people may not know this but I picked Jack worst in -- division. We wrote in our broke that the jaguars completely predicted them to be second best team in the conference we've been on the jaguars this whole way but the patriots are better and.

The patriots offense is obviously considered you know one of the best ever and we've talked about that all season long. Is the deep offense better than it gets credit for.

Yes and no -- Question is are talking about the credit that it kept from the people listen to this radio station -- credit Duquette for people listing to radio stations. In Indianapolis in San Diego and Jackson. Around the rest of the country I think people under rate the patriots beat that I think you're being overweight the patriots before it is they would be sent it is not take great. It certainly helped -- Richard Seymour back healthy that definitely helps but there are weaknesses. You know they do have some times that they have had problems tackling which controllable the older linebackers have trouble in pass coverage get eighteen charted passes with Tedy Bruschi is the big guy coverage through this is only through fourteen of the season. It can get a more complete three draw. So pat coverages not -- strength right now. So you know those weaknesses and I know -- report from Ellis -- but the fact is that you know compared to Samuel that that's a little bit of a weakness and it's not the greatest peak that week but there weren't so great defenses this year in the deep and as well pretty packed together so. They're not necessarily that much worse than all the other struck that is this year.

Well it's funny to mention -- not LB commitment about this could be as nice civil conversation obviously you don't want to go there's okay the gloves are -- an email from a guy named Brandon elaborate right email has a lot of Ellis Hobbs debt -- I was would say about this area. Brennan -- receivers. I Hobbs covered scored four touchdowns there were 44 defensive backs in the league that gave up more touchdown and Hobbs -- thousand Hobbs. Including teammate Asante Samuel who surrendered six. Denver's Dre' Bly in New Orleans is Jason don't call me -- David led.

located -- it is I think I'll get. That is -- is that nobody does that.

I don't think I got this thought -- Daniels oh god not the mistake on talk about trade block an up and say I'm coming toward the end of the sentence -- Jason Larry David. And you got that.

Although it doesn't personal -- given up is not necessarily the that's you know you're covering passes all over the field and what I mean by a week it's relatively is that based on the has -- steps we have so far how outcome that is roughly average fours and combat pop we. But you know what shall not anything that bad about having second cornerback coming out of roughly average and that's not necessarily all his spot in peace pleaded out. Internet press conference earlier this week it's somewhat what looks like Ellis Hobbs making mistakes is actually problems safety. And that's one of the most difficult things about trying to do statistical analysis of defensive back. A because we don't have access to that coaches and we -- depending on a group of volunteers looking at all there's. And by the way Brandon probably quoting stats from stats incorporated. And stats incorporated also uses television pay they don't have access to the coach still there so they're doing the same thing weird. And that means that there are times where Ellis will be playing the correct coverage I don't know what DP's call -- we can't see the safeties so they blame him for things that are not as well in this is one of the problems with doing now the defense.

Okay so that that's there. Let's break it down that's when you hurt my feelings about this way who's better lead bought your boy -- Ellis Hobbs. Yeah I now you told us in week three I love lead but.

I have spoken -- two years before this guy no doubt but boy boy that's another got by the not get discussion Cleveland Browns but that's another guys who's mistake. But by problems with safety.

Let's up without making people's hair hurt and act alike get that far into it. You have something called waded deep VOA and and put it in the simplest form as I can. It really tries to give greater weight to who's playing well right now. And who's been playing well leading up to this game excuse me this game this weekend and based on your numbers waited DV away. The two teams who were playing the best in the NFL going into this weekend are the two teams were playing against each other tomorrow night at --

That's correct with the understanding. But it doesn't adjust for injuries and that the colts would be higher you know they had had like half thirteen major to report game. I still think that holt are the biggest threat to the patriots check -- there's no question jaguars have been playing very well. People are so upset with the idea of the jaguars running case that they're not thinking about the matchup on the other side of bull. Okay the patriots offensive line should be able to push around the jaguars you'd have to. Especially if John Henderson like. Especially in the second half what's great Jackson is completely witted because demand -- not repent. He's a run stopper but eventually got to come off the field to discuss it. Their secondary is really no great change it Rashean Mathis has been had a little bit of a down -- numbers Brian Williams is okay but politics that spectacular. Jacksonville has been pretty -- this year can slot receivers which is not a good weakness to have when you play eighteen west well. So you know in general I think that Pete Boris sort of this thing. The idea of exactly what the strengths and weaknesses of the -- civil defense --

Begin -- while the interesting thing about them. I I was going to I was hesitating only because I was going to ask you what is it that were missing.

International press yeah what what are they missing the but what the strengths and weaknesses of the Jacksonville Jaguars are.

Get -- they're so obsessed with the idea of the offensive digestible Jack where -- patriots offense not being the best in the league right now. That they forget that the patriots offense against the checkbook and is a far greater. You know that the difference between the patriots passing game. And the second best passing game in the -- according to -- the way. Five times greater than the gap between the top two run. Seven times greater than the gap between the top capacity to fifteen times greater. In the gap between the top two running offenses and by the way to top most efficient on offense -- R -- belong to being New England Patriots. So I mean you know as good as you know other teams are -- certain areas the patriots passing game just blows everybody away in. --

Let's what's the other game and AFC have very interesting matchup between the chargers and colts the loss of Antonio Gates I believe it's huge does that tipped the scales back to the colts favor in your mind.

I probably technical paper anyway. But again now released -- paper because you know Bob Sanders suspect that we have to worry about country printed Marmol leave him -- much and so can sit there in the boxing LP. I'm I'm a great believer in the idea that Manning does struggle a little more against 34. That's is that against sport threes because when calling up blocking assignment. -- you don't know where the Patrick is coming from but that being said the -- Patrick has become somewhat predictable. It's generally the outside linebackers generally in depth much so what's in the -- can like Pittsburg does creep in the way the patriots. And you know the fact is in that first game. Was this an all credit the guy is -- Dallas Clark -- like you know an extra into it literally shot -- and also for. It was just not the same team so there's going to be six IP swung and missed almost pulled back. I also don't want similar between this game and brushed. Chargers to -- they're going to win on specialty. And yes I'm dissing Adam Vinatieri.

With no match you know he's come to expect that. Absolutely.

You know look they're paying the highest paid kicker in the week. And they ranked 31 to our rating on field goals in twenty said the bunker.

They bring up something interesting here and it's something we haven't talked we talked about Jacksonville and then in the fact that patriot Jacksonville game. Jacksonville running the ball whether to -- their defensive backs be able to stop Tom Brady we have mentioned special teams for a second. Where do that jaguars rank special teams wise compared to the patriots.

A little bit below the patriots I don't see it as being umps huge -- as a gigantic difference because part of the reason -- the jaguars are a little lower as as perhaps the season at John Carney is their kickers like 900 years old Walt Josh Kobe was injured but the patriots stepped we have that's that but it special teams and this is a place where he is returning kicks. Yeah man Ellis could could make a big plate there's deftly stepped and one of the Arctic guitars.

Too late -- don't get you know you know -- on the bandwagon.

I don't think kick return bandwagon now.

I kick return I don't try to limit him. Try to put him into like a little bits holdout and how he is he is a complete player and will be waving -- you.

I can't are totally out you don't it music there there would be -- like contracts out. Aaron we appreciate time as always we'll -- next Friday -- thanks errant shots from football outsiders not comment recommend -- with a net. Rates statistically based information but the most efficient run offense in the NFL based on their numbers plug in the New England Patriots