Aaron Schatz

Each and every Friday at this time. We talked football with errant shots from football outsiders dot com hello Aaron. How hard hey hey -- they had shows us shoveling and over the and a little bit this problem going on out there and shouted it's not done by 1 PM on Sunday. I guess some better this week than he did last week you feel better. Yeah yeah man I'm back out injury report but not even problems we got like Tom Brady. That that would that. Issue but he got it let's talk about and we'll talk about -- patriots in minute let's talk about the the Miami Dolphins because a few weeks ago you to that they weren't as bad as the record would indicate -- saying they might --

Yet the last two weeks by in my system. They have put up two of the three worst games played by any team this season when you consider their opponents I mean to get slaughtered by the jets this year you've got to be really really bad bad bad -- about a team Bailey and -- at the end of the season. And clearly -- back 26 years old order it would be six years old is not ready it's starting quarterback well so they're going to go back to Cleo Lemon at jets gave that was their chance really I think two win and it's going to be art you know they still can beat the ravens the Bengals hope but there's definitely chance that -- sixteen now for most of the season didn't deserve what the last two weeks they certainly.

You said two of the worst three games of -- who play the other bad game.

Kansas City last week to Denver has most he VOA rating in this here. He's -- attempt.

As it because of the opponent or just what they did in the game.

The combination in the debate do anything on third -- that's special team. Denver's not really good this year it's just accomplished a lot of stuff that is in the.

Shown via a scenario in which the New York Jets -- you got ranked 25. On your list can beat the New England Patriots and you have obviously ranked first.

Tom Brady goes down or or. Other than that there isn't really want now look I mean they're a -- bloody -- at any given Sunday and the fact is we like to talk about the NFL there are no temples in the NFL it's not this is like -- he's but sixty all the time although the patriots sort. Threatening and that's.

You know any team really can. You know all this and have a good week and whether it's a combination of wet third at certain players have a very good game. But I just you know it's very likely. To a -- is happening. Certainly having one of the things yeah I think we -- about the patriots is that they have any weakness there Monday that once you get past the defense line. And I really don't see the chances -- They can take advantage that Thomas joked that I expected all of their overall it has been agreed this year's. -- it's really part of winning.

Eric I I can't believe I haven't asked this question all season and I'll think about this the other day. Yeah end and you created the system which is really cool do you ever find yourself disagreeing with the system that you create it.

Oh sure I've actually no idea what my migrating at Cincinnati twelve. I've gone back I look at down by down have looked at by zone have looked at fumbled a look at -- cannot figure out what they're doing that I honestly. So the thing is not perfect and what I say. And I say this often about like a pre season projections. The fact it's imperfect because we haven't discovered everything yet and there's always improvements -- made so sure there are definitely times where I disagree. Disagree with the system you know Cincinnati being example but you know the patriots beat the best team in the league this year I think --

What do you but but -- that but there's a reason I asked you that now after they had to. The three point win over Philadelphia the three point win over Baltimore the people who are not using your systems -- you know what I don't know about the patriots have been more than appear to be honorable maybe they can be taken -- juror system change after those victories in did you change after those victories in your analysis of the patriots.

Well I think all along I thought the Steelers were the team to have the best chance to be dumb but the problem with the Steelers don't play well on the road I think we actually saw that. That this system actually with Philadelphia that game was rated as high as any of as as as their other games this year we not a -- they're. Best games like against Washington but. They had a really good rating for that game because a lot of what was keeping sort of be in the game at a couple breaks on psychic the Baltimore game the patriots rating is terrible they definition -- lost that game they were tremendously -- the that they're -- can for a year in the fact that they walked out of that would win it certainly. They dropped from 70% to 60% that we -- something which is you know and they had been basically the same ratings for weeks and weeks and weeks of clearly the ball -- They were they were pretty bat and they got lucky you know they have another game like that this year the other pretty well.

The thing baffles me about your numbers and and you know I've always that you got to bumper sticker this up stuff for me -- I understand -- the Pittsburgh Steelers give up 34 points. Lose by 21 -- the patriots and yet faced big went the game with the league's best defense they come out of the game with the league's best Steve pats.

That it that it passed it Tuesday first just how amazingly strong the patriots offense -- to -- up thirty point -- which of them is. Like an average performance and so when you have the best he could in the league in -- one average performance the slate here actually happen -- that. The other there are no other great defenses this year it's just there's a lot of packet teams with kind of good do you senses but all the teams behind Pittsburgh are really packed together in the ratings whether it's Tennessee New England Dallas Indianapolis Baltimore at bay and they're all -- Seattle they're all really tight Tennessee's defense. He is at bat really high level pains were healthy but for the most part there's good deep fences but a great so a great defense and give up 34 points to the greatest upsets in the history of the game. That's an -- all the best because. Anybody else would give up that.

Is far from my vantage. Fantasy fix I -- hook me up was going on this week in the league.

All -- I think it's like last night that being that. Owen Daniels against Denver and help because. Well what -- music 83 catches which is weird you know they've got to cornerback to -- the top wide receivers but -- stepped out of the let me see if I can think about -- Just like that only quite prepared for that this week I'll have my personal warned that snow shoveling hangover I mean that's an Arizona get to play New Orleans and it's basically going to rule. This year to play whoever is number one wide receiver has orally to get it on the Jason it. Burning toast contest true Larry Fitzgerald -- take it. Yes I need to have. Yeah on the Jason David politicos lottery yeah. Yeah 120 yards two touchdowns you know the worst run defense is probably -- when they play Indian. -- up less I can't imagine for your league it is not a Joseph Addai -- despite being interest in week to try to sneak away -- keep or something.

What's important what you probably could sneak in and Anthony Gonzales.

about the Oakland you know pat you that is not that yeah.

when he got them I -- I would Ohio State what.

It's amazing -- and it's amazing what Oakland shown you this this year between Oakland and Tennessee you're really in an example of how one player on these. You can lose one player one player can quiet and just the domino effect it is. Remarkable and with Oakland the two defense tackle out of the quite so much this year that. Even little linebackers and cornerbacks still playing very well it's a -- the fences and -- it you know other other. You know terrible defenses you know obviously you don't anybody on the patriots -- there -- they continually got to -- might be pitched in week two -- Stallworth and -- interest in week to go with like Mark Clayton from Baltimore derrick Mason's probably taken in most leagues but. Obviously Miami's and it's been pretty bad this year they had to run two or three weeks where they were pretty good but most of that was because they were playing in buckets and buckets anymore. But you know -- benefit by this what passing most people are so deep of their playoff is really you know not only take a couple of we've.

Yeah not exactly. Well without.

What would collect its joke -- is literally this year I don't think he -- get any worse -- Fred Thomas last year but Jason Davis has been worse it's really. The two cornerbacks who left Indianapolis nick harper as and so much better tennis the chase if that. Has been in new world Indianapolis stand. They pointed gaping 'cause see how smart bill Paul it is and that's -- defensive players we need people to lose and something RD that is even better well I don't know if that's necessarily true about nick harper but it's.

Aaron we I was appreciate time we'll talk to next week all right take care aren't -- errant shots from football outsiders dot com