Aaron Schatz, Football Outsider

Showing that he can play with pain a little under the weather but joining us as he does each and every Friday from football outsiders dot com is errant shots they -- gone better you evidently yeah. That was mentioning I -- your weekly DE VOA ratings -- I do every week when he wrote -- earlier in the week. And and to bumper sticker for people -- point you made was that the patriots got dominated by the Baltimore ravens Monday.

Yeah they really dead -- for the opponent adjustments I mean. They had been 45% or over in every game this year and explain to people how high that is there are only two teams in the last dozen years have been that high pretty piracy in the -- had been now I'd a single game. And then this week against Baltimore they were at minus 30. -- you Baltimore when you add any opponent adjustment for how hard it is to the patriots have one of the best games of the year. So I'd like eagles game where they won close but it actually not a close score. This weren't they really cuts pay. And got really lucky to have pulled this one I mean who thought -- is different for conspiracy -- want to get people around the country -- like. You know lather up but the nonsense about the reps but I mean you know they were rocket.

Well let -- let me challenge on that when you say lock it give me an instance where they were lucky.

While timeout. That's lucky I mean it is D the fumble the fumble out. The wrong words sometimes for some of these events. -- reputable that perhaps better a better phrase was in the fact is it very rarely comes up during the season where you have an opportunity to strip a defender are an interception or fumble return. So it's not really going to tell you much about what that team might do in the future.

I'll get -- but I -- know I I agree with you completely I agree with you. On the timeout because you're not going to see that very often that situation fourth and one in -- here's here's the defensive coordinator. Coming from the back row hey hey you know it does any man object to the marriage of metabolic true you know you never see that. But we have a running back making a good head that.

Yeah that's not not that bad -- but it's not really an indicator of how well an offense will play in the future could be Shoppach is jobs probably not the stripped the ball.

In year junior rankings you you -- where the patriots are in the best and worst offensive and and overall numbers ever. What I don't see his best and worst defensive numbers ever and I'm wondering where the Pittsburgh Steelers would rank if you did include that.

something like 15 or 16 this the here is released squeezed together for -- the lowest and highest property squeezed together they certainly not. Getting to where -- 2000 ravens in 2002 in Tampa Bay -- are but. The Steelers are the best he's at this year at Iowa wide margin the difference between them and the team at number two. Is the same as the difference between between the number two which is all. Oh and that came at number ten which city pick up all those teams are pretty squeezed gathered expert is way out front of the rest. Despite the particular losses to teams like Arizona in the -- community that has been so good in the other -- this that it makes up.

Well what are your numbers tell you to expect if you've got the best offense in the NFL playing against the best defense. And historically may be the best offense ever.

in the thing is that the patriot compared to pat league average R that's a much bigger difference at least it was decent compared the week after so. You know it'd be the number one offense that went deep that the the patriots of the number one offense. The other thing about this game is there's a real special teams difference in this game between the GT the fact is the patriots have -- its specialty. And the Steelers have a lousy specialty. At any Steelers and will tell you if you. Ask that and in particular at their kickoff of the really bad this year and the patriots kick after great. And also the Steelers can't return -- at all although the patriots are great -- team I'm. Put it number one on the west of people express -- replaced.

You know and it -- not on president and you say you know it can Walter would be exact that's going to go that call him operable.

This year the pick I haven't had much opportunity last year Jack but he was what was -- the -- numbers.

Brooks Bernard that that guys and -- for for a game. Good question I think he was a little banged up maybe that's when I got rid of them but he got to be available to be around somewhere. -- what's the score going to be Tuesday.

Well -- of the thing is I think a lot of it depends on. Our distinguished -- problems earlier in the year is that's something real or is it just kind of -- sample size fluke of the a couple of games to the fact is there's three losses are all on the road. They're all the teams that are very good dead bird Arizona and the jets the deal they like last year I mean we're going to get bank hardcore.

Yet they get up 31 points in Denver earlier this year.

I mean there's no way they can play like that against the patriots and you've got sick that some of the problems last couple we took away a little bit for the patriots in particular. I think that -- props are much. More likely to go away from the run decent issues because he just cannot see these receivers dropping that many passes for a third straight week. So I can't think that the patriots are you know being favored at this game make a lot of sense public by a touchdown so

how about the -- fantasy watch I mean who who's going to jump out this week.

Well -- running back wise throughout Ryan grant against at Oakland P sent to camp -- at all and hoping Smith point is that what discipline the Denver rusty had we -- that's before discussion not that you know they just about run difference. -- gave. Well -- Roddy White against the against the saint Roddy White last time they played this -- caught all eight passes that were intended for -- for a 110 yards. And really could also go with green agent Greg Jennings changed Jones. Did the raiders tend to shut down the opposing number one receiver with on the up the world but -- technical a lot of yards the number two and number three receivers so he can need the waiver wire Jennings the pretty packed.

Well you know what I know you're sick but I got no love for you today because everybody you name is on somebody else is that.

Yeah you can I didn't know.

Not James Jones is that Greg Jennings somebody -- awhile ago wouldn't let him go and I would be you know someone else.

Now let other guy -- north cut Dennis Northcutt so. He's Carolina has struggled just want receivers I mean that opinion try to say the number one receiver Jack he is but it's not like they depend. --

Aaron we appreciate stake in the time as we said to -- hurt today but will talk to again next Friday.

Now hopefully I'm up near the patriots a 13 to.

All right sir -- an errant shots from football outsiders dot com giving us his weekly take on thing