Aaron Schatz, Football Outsiders

Each and every Friday at this time we connect up with -- errant shots from football outsiders dot com. And hopefully we won't crash the website this -- Caron -- you don't.

So hey you guys.

Not great it felt like opening now don't want to -- by -- maligned for not talking earned that some. Advice for a friend of mine -- I'll ask him about you know a group of running backs in. He told me that Deuce McAllister was good -- minded -- that work out how -- predicted -- thought after a lot of -- ACL injuries that. Yeah you don't have any a mathematical formula you -- plug yourself that tells yep I -- is going to terrorism ACL in this game.

R Manny you could tell what he went out to eat at that look on his face he knew he knew it was.

Hey we were just a few minutes ago telling people about it an article on your website football outsiders dot com Mike ten year. Right say piece called two deep zone and he breaks down the Bengals beat -- I mean I thought he had to be a football coach would you tell me he's not.

Yeah I don't think he's ever coached in all I think he's just it is a high school math teacher -- Who lost the ball in the right after four years now.

Well he's a high school math teacher doesn't coached the freshman football --

Coach I know debate sickening to guide those. Texas knows like you wouldn't believe to be honest the same thing goes for Michael David that is another one archives of this kind -- you also approach but. You know just does stuff.

While an end to it is it to is retaining your body can't your ten years article. -- he breaks down how horrible the deep deep -- of the Cincinnati angles what do you think that will mean on Monday night Aaron for the.

They'll be a lot of point to what it's going to meet. And it doesn't really have -- have been -- probably scored 38 points again able to stop at 38 per pot.

Just to keep a nice round mass number two -- I was just look at it at your rankings. And here and and again as you did last week yet the patriots ranked first overall as they were a week ago. Cincinnati fell from 15 that we could go to 16 this week. And defensively you've got them ranked I think 16 in the league. But as you point out they just can't stop the run at all.

Yeah it there 16 but it's not you know we haven't started opponent adjustments jet ski pick about it I don't really think Cleveland is going to be a top offense by the end of the year. I don't think Baltimore is either and we let Jamal Lewis like the current Jamal Lewis but for 200 yards but as a prop.

What do you think about quarterbacks in the -- is you guys get into any deep quarterback analysis on your site because we were all accepted that the three -- league quarterbacks in the league are Brady. -- in Palmer. So forth that your opinion.

to change every year -- I mean mean definitely agree on on the top three -- I kind of think that is sort of secondary care by you know god -- that piercings in out. Probably would've -- a couple of years ago that that here at Roethlisberger council back in it but nobody would said that last year you know McNabb is probably there probably would sit breeze was there but now note the terrible last street. So -- it's kind of hard to -- because everybody else was up but now it's just those top three aren't always.

One of the things that that you do on your website you breakdown top offenses top deep fences. But to also ranked special teams which I find interest thing now. We always take it almost as a given. The the Buffalo Bills are you know one of the best of this special teams in in the league and yet after what the patriots did two home they they ended up going from what second we could go down the seventh this week.

Yeah but if you think you know part of that is -- he was not in the game he's return god. So he's a big part of their special teams and since and he wasn't there they could. -- good returns that would have been that that that would endanger making -- 3814 he would play itself.

And the reason I bring it up is that you've also got the Cincinnati Bengals. Dead last in special teams in the NFL.

big gap not so good this year with the kickoff coverage jay -- not bad as a kicker. The coverage is pretty bad in the hunter hasn't been good in the returns haven't been it doesn't mean overall.

love to hear your opinion on what's going on in Chicago Rex Grossman is out. Other defense is banged up you still think it's as one of the best teams in the NFC.

I in the NFC -- Yeah every ball contenders I mean no not not at all not with -- out for months on carrot top remarked that. Remember last year what happened Tommie Harris is gone like we 13 or something and then on their content to each one saint. But it wasn't spectacular and -- this is kinda what we've met for the season when I was telling people Chicago cannot play -- for three straight years. The injuries are going to get them and they adapt really wasn't very good -- particularly on the defensive line what they've had a lot of injuries especially here. And and they're not the same team which and it doesn't matter to deep and because the offense the offense is not good enough that they get I would good decent they have to have great. -- changing decreasing as epic up and ready to make a few you know about the perception -- that are.

You know actually agree with that no Rex Grossman was making a lot of mistakes than he was driving people crazy. But when he was on and I know when he wasn't on very very often when he was on he was capable of making a play. I don't think Brian Griese is capable of making a place of the solid guys.

Well weighted average gotten he's -- pretty much in Albert except that one year in Miami everything's terrible. -- like yourself Jeff -- in the last frisk. And there's less from -- when you've got to change the ultra defensive teams that's probably the kind of quarterback you want probably -- It really that good at these guys all injured it's not really going to be that good for the next month so. They're not really outscored anybody that the one good thing it is it's good news for anybody who -- motion Mohammed offensively. Because he's done not been this year but you gotta figure with a better quarterback not to mention quarterback who. You know probably sabres more shorter throws -- and deep stuff preparing and that is stepped up.

Desperate that they the free agent normally.

Yeah created in the created a lot of leagues in the free agent my opinion I think this week. Detroit has -- secondary.

And you didn't call Michael -- time. You know we picked up Mousa Mohammed getting give Michael -- little Lola.

Michael quick choice might -- didn't pick up --

They're very. They back to the Bengals from -- we already talked about -- the other not very good run -- fence what compound that the fact that they can't run the ball you've got them ranked 26 in rushing offense. And that was with Rudi Johnson what will they be like without.

Every kind of slowing down this year you know this is this is really weird to hear all the great running backs seem to be slowing down for the most part what are you a long -- Kenny Watson was trying to underrated guy. He's not batting sort of support -- the promised to remember what happened when they try to make Kevin Faulk an actual running Pakistan have -- that it really work. So did the same thing with Kenny Watson and you can have the same result only worse especially -- calling up against the patriots -- that I can't really imagine them. Delegates -- a yardage on the ground this week the other probably have injuries on the on the topic of wind Levi Jones really good last year -- left tackle. He seemed like he developed in -- He got injured in the NL east sort of been benched until he's fully healthy -- got another guy at left tackle Wentworth. Might not you know that was a big part of their opposites as much as a -- in the don't.

You know -- and the patriots I know everyone hears it is excited about them they can't be as good as they look right now there's always a flaw an obvious lob that people overlooked until someone -- they're going to the bat but with all that said they are the best team an AFC east. The second best team AFC's to -- division going to be over Biden mid November.

I think the jets are are still the second best team even though they were lucky last year to have the record they -- there's still has some improving talent and their schedule. That's a lot easier over the next few weeks that it was first so I think that the jets are are in above finish eight -- something open and the patriots are so far ahead of the rest of the division frightening.

And Miami. Back to the rebuilding mode in other words.

Mended their tickets finally get old this year everybody kind of -- wait for it now these guys are their 30s and promise and Taylor. What can happen at some point who you know Miami is just to want to see it all happened it worked its teams to -- systems -- tunnel this year promises. Out of concussion issues -- that deep and they're just not.

Look I know you hear your site gets into a lot of analysis a lot of good information there. But this give our people out there and I think we're playing fantasy football but some people out -- do. Who -- hot fantasy player or fantasy team that people should be focused on this week.

We want to kind of -- spoke to pick up this week would be the guy that we all remember from around here but not very welcome like in public read passes that on trade -- Number hand of the patriarchs around like a scene then become a few passes and always have hamstring problems in. He is now starting wide receiver in Houston because Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones both -- which Toby.

Our -- we didn't do so well for me last.

And it went up in Atlanta has won quarterback who could at least be described as average and he's not play him this week. -- shots -- tell you know -- angry the plate -- to trade him. Davis' start at wide receiver and he's so I picked him up a couple of weeks that the great play this week you gotta buy.

What kind of numbers will Tom Brady have I mean he's already put up great numbers through three weeks would he have come out. Late Monday night or early Tuesday morning.

I can't imagine it's going to be any different I mean unless they want to really camera -- in forests because the run deep fences so. The secondary isn't that great either -- not a O'Neal was okay Leo called the rookie. With nick Johnson and injured a little but I guess in. Their good safeties but I I can imagine the same thing just going to pass pass pass and then they'll go to the run in the second half so probably end up with recently stepped the first.

Okay you know he's missed on six passes that passes in each of his first three games six over or under. This game.

Over just because that's almost impossible to keep telling but still on. It -- percent completion raiders -- then I went back and looked over the last decade the highest completion percentage of any quarterback in the league through their first three games to get like you know 20 capital aspartame some notable. Highest -- 72%. Until this year shot like 73 and Brady is at 82 boldly every quarterback in the last decade.

do you think Kevin some wide receivers helps.

You know actually kind of worked out -- would be glad to --

The web site is called football outsiders dot com we use it religiously we recommended highly for you as well. Aaron we'll talk to next Friday thanks to take care are there and I errant shots from a football outsiders dot com