Aaron Schotz, Football Outsider

This guy will be a regular contributor. Beginning today in each and every Friday at this time name is -- shots he is -- one of the primary writers for a football website we've used a lot over the years. Called football outsiders dot com parent I don't. I am doing -- at them and do well. I was good -- you finally you know make some time fortunate and I bought they're all calls or ring. My other votes since every Q I feel like physically people not now not today not to. So how how -- the book signings and tell us about that. The public can't -- crowds BC is the best they lost there. Tell us about them and let's let's plug your book here quickly before we get into the the statistical stuff fear let folks know the book that you're talking about --

prep football perspective that 2007. And obviously you know the season started he can't really use it in your fantasy draft at this point you know we're proud about stuff we stick -- that's not and it's football. Now step about the of the secondary up at the line special teams in. The coaching research there's there's plenty of stuff that's in an out that people can referred to throughout these.

Aaron we -- statistical ranking. And I don't follow I don't one you got a New England Patriots no questions there how did you come up with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the second best in the football.

Well basically it's because it's too early first at the opponent adjustments. And that's only based on the first two weeks so well based on the first two weeks of the season they're really hot I mean you know they've they've brought that two teams -- other two bad teams but they have completely product -- And then our projections for the for the season were actually quite -- we projected them win their division so he's combined those things we also have about that right --

When you project at the beginning of a season -- you take into consideration and we were just talking about this a minute ago the coaching change in Pittsburgh. And a rookie head coach at that.

Well unfortunately you know we've got a team that takes into account the fact that teams you know once she even doubt taking consideration everything else Q do you have to take step backwards when they hired new coaching staff particularly new offensive core work but we can't really do. Any kind of adjustment based on the quality of the coach because you don't know the quality of the coach until you've seen coach we don't know -- parliament that a Howard till we see it. Oh we don't know that by the hunt is that it agreed till we see and I mean everybody I've read what's gonna save the cardinals and pointed that not happened so. In general teams with the -- coordinators and a projecting little lower our projection that sometimes that a -- wrong you know last year seats being the best. One example that.

Well how your projections go for the patriots and their offense may regret that they're going to be like the 98 vikings and Brian billick was off -- coordinator except the patriots most people expect in the -- that vikings team that vikings team didn't win the championship.

I mean you know for want to the field goal by you know we had. The patriots projected as the number one offense in the league.

I mean how does that breakdown -- you -- what 30 fighting and they they've scored 38 points a game right now do you see them. Scoring in the 30s consistently collier.

It generally translates specifically to a number but I don't think that that's an impossible thing for them to do particularly because they're division looks. Now he could be easier than what few months ago a Miami and seems like it's finally kind of gotten all. The jets defense seems really out of sorts but -- she just horrible. So you know they're six games for your score a lot of points I don't think it's impossible for the and the score. A ton of points mean listen what the patriots do they do everything well this figure out what you can't stop and the majesty that. Does this change what they do every week that's what they always. The differences now they can do everything before they couldn't do everything. They want to -- do everything so every opponent as we get the just do that that.

One of the things that that is going on in this weekend's matchup is you've got to Buffalo Bills team. That and I'll use your phrase here but turnaround -- they don't look like they can do anything.

Yeah I mean. This -- where. -- a little bit seems to be giving back some of the kids from last year but in particular I think teams have learned that you just stick it many guys as possible utley Evans and challenge them. The -- someone else. There were times over the last couple weeks you would have both safety shading towards we haven't. Peerless price cut a 20 yard pass last week which is probably 20 more yards then his longest pass from last year because last year. You know literally every two or three yards -- this year with everybody covering Evans you know he was able to get open deep from one -- but for the most part you know. He's not going to get those passes because he's peerless price. And on defense I mean you know -- got -- that they lost their best quarterback they lost their best linebacker the second best linebacker this young kid Keith Ellison is injured now. They just you know they just don't have much.

I was thinking about this this match up and we get all excited about Brady and and his wide receivers and all that stuff but if I look specifically at the buffalo match up. I think they're going to run Laurence Maroney -- legs fall off because I don't think buffalo can stop the run game at all.

Would you do you know what you could put Randy bought tickets Terence McKenna Mike got to get 200 yards a -- literally they can do anything that happens.

You know Aaron how I get your take on. This I notice that has nothing to do with that statistics but I want to get your take on the Bill Belichick camera situation so many people have weighed in on it I'd just like to hear what you have to think about what you have to say about.

I think that. Eat eat eat punishment was fair in particular because I think had been suspended bell a check. I cannot judge Daniel ET's would have trouble running this team to. When you lose first round pick you lost a good productive player probably for ten years that's a huge loss. I really -- not like -- witch hunt mentality that seems to have come about in the media. That there are 15000 rumors of other things they did. And nobody had any evidence for any of we're just going to write about the non stop. Did the patriots really did some of the things that they are alleged to have done you would think that one of the people -- left the team. Was unhappy with spell check which its had something right up by now Michael porter boy. Where Ty Law where Drew Bledsoe I mean you know there's a lot of people look leftist he's not happy with the head coach in the management so. I would like the witchhunt to go away I think it's good that the league said we're closing the book. It into anything else which all of our lives and I hope that the press wouldn't want to we can into it --

Problem I want to talk about the press part of for a moment and and this may be anecdotal an unfair but I'm going to do it anyway. -- ESPN couldn't write enough about the bill ballot check camera gate thing and splashing on the front page of espn.com. In the aftermath of Roger Goodell ruling yesterday that this is done this is overworked finished -- that. There is nothing on page one on espn.com you've got to go to the NFL page. And if you go -- about the third item down on the list on the right is an AP story. About how okay it's all over.

You know what that honestly better as far as I'm concerned because it it was the page one story it would bring up more discussion of -- was the we. Right to do this are they hiding something are they trying to keep from getting any other teams in trouble. I think the fact you know having it not on the front page helps it to move off the front page. And now we can move on with the season and we're not going to go hunting. The weather the patriots were messing with wires under -- wind and five years ago and all these other ridiculous rumors that are coming now. Which there's no evidence so.

You know -- got a friend of mine who's who's really in the fantasy football on his team is in bad shape -- wanted it. Help this friend of mine out -- literally names out of it -- he's looking at at at at running back crop that includes Marshawn Lynch. Thomas Jones and Deuce McAllister or to help up this friend this week. What's one of those guys is poised for a big game.

But erratic playing here Thomas Jones Miami well we still don't know -- that -- sense at this point you know the patriots who I would really go against them and -- and yet Tennessee has not really been the greatest team stopping -- run not that might be good match up but. It's hard to tell what's going out with a orally options. They seem to live shied away a little bit from I -- she's in McAllister has budget last year it. Obviously struggled a lot in the first few weeks I don't think the struggled as badly for the whole season you know McAllister is trying to get older it is as great respect comeback season once last year I don't quite know -- be -- the match she.

So this friend of -- to -- you call disperse them advice pick up the phone means. Is that okay if this guy called a.

you know I like -- questions about fancied that you know it's about the tough but the cut.

Yeah that seems Knicks actually because the guy who lives three running backs get -- a --

I can tell you this but my candidate doing this well nick price he could pick. Everybody that I was wrong about it my projections and passed up on everybody were my projections -- correct.

Well I want to ask you that but those projections and you mentioned the New Orleans Saints are they team that up to this point at least early is it is. Has underperformed the most based on how you thought they were going to perform -- and.

Well our projections are the numbers actually at the -- is the worst team in that division that the division as fairly close and they saw that he'd sort of retrenching. Based on what they've done two years ago. Now we looked at that said well two years ago there was -- The numbers don't really know the saints are better. Well we knew the saint -- that would be terrible. I thought was the seats were going to end up a lot like the 2000 -- about the grant actually had a better offense than not not. But 13 that's -- so hideous that they could even when they're division but rather -- that has been as bad as we expected the opposite is just not shown up the table when nobody can quite a while the most disappointing team however might be either Philadelphia -- I mean our projections at Jacksonville really break up because they were just so ridiculously inconsistent last year. But I like to do was bring a little bit of consistency that pain -- it's -- sent -- That you've had to figure that they would at least ten games. And it's that I mean you know barely beating Atlanta and lose in the first week got to be kidding me. Philadelphia okay underperform but at the same time I mean they've they've lost two close games so you know that there's certain seasons certainly not overnight. People of Philadelphia certainly do like the panic early so this gives them a good chance to do.

Just lack of Boston. I -- adding that top two teams in the NFL are the colts and with all respect your your rankings I think the cult in the patriots of the top two teams what's the difference between those teams. In your opinion.

Got absolutely no idea what you're gonna get from the cold Steve -- from week to week.

And that's -- that's a big difference.

That's good I'd are the biggest difference because we don't know yet whether the colts' defense is really the team that they were in week one. And last year's playoffs. Where the team that they were in last year's regular season and it week to win Tennessee which doesn't have the greatest offense. The world was once and stuck against them I mean you know white brown will run -- the gun on them for a good amount of that game. It was back to really you know -- speed that they can't tackle. And over pursuit -- ever think they're over aggressive and you know you know Bob Sanders is going to get injured at some point it's. It happens every year they're only hope is that it happened early in the back of the playoffs don't have that feeling with a -- The patriots they go out there every week and you say not that's because the tickets because with the culture you know the opposite and because we don't know that the beat them.

In other words what you're saying is if you had Ahman Green in your fantasy football team. You looked at play them this week against Indianapolis Colts I think what you're saying.

absolutely spent because of the Texans brought to this week. Andre --

Our way to go beat Jones --

Andre Johnson has had more passes thrown to him than every other wide receiver and tight end on Houston -- behind. So don't run a little bit this week I -- between you know the Pope speak that's being what it is not great job and being where he has Ahman Green -- good.

The -- the website -- called football outsiders dot com on and that's the good news the bad news Aaron as we've been talking about it and I think we crashed you're server

we have we arguing we are in the middle of a huge take a lot. On underneath you know -- the surface -- that is hopefully going to solve these problems once enthralled. But out that we we have the small profits --

Well I think we crashed it for -- so we'll we'll talk to again next week thanks guys but Garcia errant shots from football outsiders dot com joining us this he will each and every week